When will Egypt overtake Mexico in population?

Mexico is about 14.7 million ahead today, but its fertility is now below replacement at 1.9 births per woman, its population is projected to peak around 2059, and net emigration takes a further slice each year. Egypt, at 2.7 births per woman, keeps growing throughout the century. The lines cross in the early 2040s, and Egypt reaches 202 million by 2100 while Mexico settles back to 131 million.

Egypt is projected to overtake Mexico in total population around 2041. At the crossover, both countries sit at roughly 146 million people. Today Mexico is still larger, but the trend lines are converging and the order is set to flip within a generation.

The reason is a tale of two trajectories. Egypt is set to grow strongly over the century, moving from about 116 million in 2024 toward 202 million by 2100. Mexico, by contrast, is projected to stay broadly flat, going from roughly 130 million to 131 million over the same period. Differences in fertility and age structure (Egypt's median age near 24 versus Mexico's near 29 today) explain much of the divergence.

Crossovers like this one are how the global population ranking is quietly rewritten. As faster-growing populations climb the table and slower-growing or shrinking ones slip down, the list of the world's largest countries in 2100 will look markedly different from today's. The 2041 crossing is one of the clearer signals of that shift.

As with all long-range projections, the exact year carries uncertainty. Under the UN's high and low fertility scenarios the crossover could arrive earlier or later, and the figures here follow the medium variant. Still, the direction of travel, Egypt rising relative to Mexico, is robust across the plausible range of outcomes.