When will DR Congo overtake Philippines in population?

The Philippines is only about 7.9 million ahead today, and the two are heading in different directions. Fertility in the Philippines has fallen below the replacement level, to 1.9 births per woman, and the UN projects continued net emigration, while DR Congo averages 6.0 births per woman, one of the highest rates in the world. The lines cross almost immediately, and by 2100 the projection has DR Congo at 429 million against 115 million for the Philippines.

DR Congo is projected to overtake Philippines in total population around 2027. At the crossover, both countries sit at roughly 118 million people. Today Philippines is still larger, but the trend lines are converging and the order is set to flip within a generation.

The reason is a tale of two trajectories. DR Congo is on course to more than double over the century, moving from about 108 million in 2024 toward 429 million by 2100. Philippines, by contrast, is projected to stay broadly flat, going from roughly 115 million to 115 million over the same period. Differences in fertility and age structure (DR Congo's median age near 16 versus Philippines's near 26 today) explain much of the divergence.

Crossovers like this one are how the global population ranking is quietly rewritten. As faster-growing populations climb the table and slower-growing or shrinking ones slip down, the list of the world's largest countries in 2100 will look markedly different from today's. The 2027 crossing is one of the clearer signals of that shift.

As with all long-range projections, the exact year carries uncertainty. Under the UN's high and low fertility scenarios the crossover could arrive earlier or later, and the figures here follow the medium variant. Still, the direction of travel, DR Congo rising relative to Philippines, is robust across the plausible range of outcomes.