Mexico Population

Mexico's fertility has fallen to around the replacement level, ending the fast growth of the late twentieth century and setting the stage for gradual ageing. Emigration to the United States, long a defining feature of Mexican demographics, has slowed sharply, and in some years more people have returned than left. The country now sits in the middle of its transition, with a still-sizeable young population but a clearly visible path toward an older one.

Mexico is home to about 132 million people in 2026, the 11th largest population of any country. Set in Central America, its demographic path this century turns on the balance of births, deaths and migration. It packs in roughly 68 people per square kilometre.

Growth continues for Mexico until around 2059, the year its population is set to crest at about 150 million. From there a slow fall takes it to roughly 131 million by century's end. It passed the 100 million mark around 2002.

The median age is set to climb from about 29 today to roughly 49 by 2100, while life expectancy, near 75 years, keeps rising. That ageing slowly changes everything from the size of the workforce to the cost of care and pensions.

Fertility sits at about 1.89 births per woman, below the replacement level of roughly 2.1, so without migration the population would eventually shrink.

The trajectory above is the UN's medium scenario. Wars, policy shifts, economic change and migration can all move the numbers, but the broad shape, growth followed by an eventual peak, is robust across the main variants.