When will Egypt overtake Japan in population?

Japan's population peaked in 2010 and has been falling since, with 1.2 births per woman and a median age of 49. Egypt is a generation younger, with a median age of 24 and 2.7 births per woman, and it adds people every year. The gap today is about 8.5 million, so the crossover comes within a few years, after which Egypt keeps climbing toward 202 million by 2100 while Japan falls to 77.0 million.

Egypt is projected to overtake Japan in total population around 2028. At the crossover, both countries sit at roughly 122 million people. Today Japan is still larger, but the trend lines are converging and the order is set to flip within a generation.

The reason is a tale of two trajectories. Egypt is set to grow strongly over the century, moving from about 116 million in 2024 toward 202 million by 2100. Japan, by contrast, is projected to fall sharply, going from roughly 124 million to 77.0 million over the same period. Differences in fertility and age structure (Egypt's median age near 24 versus Japan's near 49 today) explain much of the divergence.

Crossovers like this one are how the global population ranking is quietly rewritten. As faster-growing populations climb the table and slower-growing or shrinking ones slip down, the list of the world's largest countries in 2100 will look markedly different from today's. The 2028 crossing is one of the clearer signals of that shift.

As with all long-range projections, the exact year carries uncertainty. Under the UN's high and low fertility scenarios the crossover could arrive earlier or later, and the figures here follow the medium variant. Still, the direction of travel, Egypt rising relative to Japan, is robust across the plausible range of outcomes.