Belarus Population
Belarus population, 1990–2100
Medium projection with low/high uncertainty band
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Belarus in context
Belarus has one of the lowest fertility rates in Europe and a population that has been shrinking since the mid-1990s. The crackdown that followed the 2020 protests and the war next door in Ukraine triggered a further wave of emigration, much of it young and educated. The projection is stark: a population of about nine million today falling toward half that by 2100.
The Belarus demographic outlook
With roughly 9.0 million people as of 2026, Belarus ranks 101st in the world by population. In Eastern Europe, where it lies, that future is driven by fertility, longevity and the movement of people across its borders. It packs in roughly 44 people per square kilometre.
Having topped out near 10.2 million around 1994, Belarus has entered the long, slow decline now spreading across much of the world. Its population is projected to fall to roughly 7.5 million by 2050 and about 4.4 million by 2100.
The median age is set to climb from about 41 today to roughly 54 by 2100, even as life expectancy improves from about 75 years. A rising median age means fewer working-age people supporting each retiree over time.
At about 1.22 births per woman, Belarus has one of the world's lowest fertility rates, well under the replacement level of around 2.1.
These figures follow the UN's medium variant, the most widely cited scenario. The low and high variants, driven mainly by differing fertility assumptions, fan out into a wide range by 2100, so treat each number as a central estimate rather than a precise forecast.
Migration & natural change
Net migration against natural change (births − deaths), 2026
Belarus is a net source of migration: roughly 3,608 more people leave than arrive each year. Deaths now outnumber births, subtracting about 57,762 people a year, so migration is what keeps the population from falling faster.
Who supports whom
Dependants (under 15 and 65+) per 100 working-age adults (15–64)
| Year | Youth | Old-age | Total | 65+ share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | 27 | 51 | 18% |
| 2050 | 21 | 46 | 67 | 27% |
| 2100 | 20 | 67 | 86 | 36% |
A total ratio of 100 means as many dependants as working-age adults. Rising old-age figures signal an ageing population and growing pressure on pensions and healthcare.
Key milestones
Age structure
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Demographic indicators
| Population 2024 | 9.1 million |
| Population 2050 | 7.5 million |
| Population 2075 | 5.7 million |
| Population 2100 | 4.4 million |
| Median age 2050 | 48.1 years |
| Fertility rate 2050 | 1.38 |
| Life expectancy 2100 | 85.9 years |