Nigeria vs Indonesia: population
How Nigeria and Indonesia compare in population today and out to 2100, side by side, from UN World Population Prospects 2024.
Nigeria and Indonesia population, 2000-2100
Lines cross around 2041
Side by side
| 🇳🇬 Nigeria | 🇮🇩 Indonesia | |
|---|---|---|
| Population today | 240 million | 287 million |
| Population 2050 | 357 million | 320 million |
| Population 2100 | 477 million | 296 million |
| World rank | #6 | #4 |
| Peak year | after 2100 | 2059 |
| Median age (2024) | 18 | 30 |
| Fertility rate (2024) | 4.38 | 2.11 |
| Life expectancy (2024) | 55 yrs | 71 yrs |
| Density (per km²) | 266 | 151 |
Why this comparison matters
Indonesia and Nigeria are both among the ten most populous countries, and they are on diverging paths. Indonesia's fertility has settled at the replacement level, 2.1 births per woman, and the UN projects its population to peak around 2059. Nigeria, at 4.4 births per woman with a median age of 18, keeps growing strongly for the rest of the century. Indonesia is the larger today by about 52.1 million, but the projection has Nigeria passing it around 2041 and pulling far ahead.
Nigeria vs Indonesia, explained
Today Indonesia is the larger of the two, with about 287 million people against Nigeria's 240 million. Nigeria is the world's 6th most populous country and Indonesia the 4th.
Their paths to 2100 differ. Nigeria grows strongly over the century, moving from about 230 million to 477 million (+107.0%). Indonesia edges higher, going from 282 million to 296 million (+4.9%).
The two cross over: Nigeria is projected to overtake Indonesia around 2041, when both sit near 314 million people. It is one of the clearer signals of how the global ranking is being rewritten.
The deeper contrast is age and fertility. Nigeria has a median age near 18 and 4.38 births per woman, against Indonesia's 30 and 2.11. All figures follow the UN's medium-variant projection.