Nigeria Population

Nigeria is the engine of Africa's coming population surge. Already the most populous country on the continent, it pairs a median age under 20 with a fertility rate far above replacement, a combination that compounds fast. The UN projects it will become one of the three or four most populous countries on earth within a few decades, with much of that growth concentrated in cities like Lagos, among the fastest-growing urban areas anywhere.

Nigeria is home to about 240 million people in 2026, the 6th largest population of any country. In Western Africa, where it lies, that future is driven by fertility, longevity and the movement of people across its borders. Population density stands at about 266 people for every square kilometre of land.

Growth continues for Nigeria until around 2100, the year its population is set to crest at about 477 million. From there a slow fall takes it to roughly 477 million by century's end. It passed the 200 million mark around 2018.

Half of Nigeria is currently younger than about 18, but by 2100 the median age is projected to reach around 34, even as life expectancy improves from about 55 years. For now it remains one of the world's youngest populations, with a large generation about to reach working age. That ageing slowly changes everything from the size of the workforce to the cost of care and pensions.

With about 4.38 births per woman, Nigeria still has one of the higher fertility rates in the world, driving fast expansion.

Read these numbers as the midpoint of a range. Under the UN's high and low fertility paths Nigeria's 2100 population could land well above or below the figures here; the medium variant is simply the central case.