India vs China: population
How India and China compare in population today and out to 2100, side by side, from UN World Population Prospects 2024.
India and China population, 2000-2100
Lines cross around 2023
Side by side
| 🇮🇳 India | 🇨🇳 China | |
|---|---|---|
| Population today | 1.47 billion | 1.41 billion |
| Population 2050 | 1.68 billion | 1.27 billion |
| Population 2100 | 1.51 billion | 639 million |
| World rank | #1 | #2 |
| Peak year | 2062 | 2021 |
| Median age (2024) | 28 | 40 |
| Fertility rate (2024) | 1.96 | 1.01 |
| Life expectancy (2024) | 72 yrs | 78 yrs |
| Density (per km²) | 497 | 147 |
Why this comparison matters
This is the defining demographic matchup of the century: the only two countries that have ever held more than a billion people, now diverging. India passed China in 2023 to become the most populous country on earth, and the gap is set to widen for decades as India keeps growing while China, weighed down by the legacy of its one-child policy, has begun a steep decline.
India vs China, explained
Today India is the larger of the two, with about 1.47 billion people against China's 1.41 billion. India is the world's 1st most populous country and China the 2nd.
Their paths to 2100 differ. India edges higher over the century, moving from about 1.44 billion to 1.51 billion (+4.5%). China falls sharply, going from 1.42 billion to 639 million (-55.1%).
The two cross over: India overtook China back in 2023, when both sit near 1.43 billion people. It is one of the clearer signals of how the global ranking is being rewritten.
The deeper contrast is age and fertility. India has a median age near 28 and 1.96 births per woman, against China's 40 and 1.01. All figures follow the UN's medium-variant projection.