When will Mexico overtake Russia in population?

Russia's population peaked in 1992 and the UN projects it to keep shrinking, from 145 million in 2024 to 136 million by 2050, on 1.5 births per woman. Mexico is still growing, though slowly: its fertility is 1.9 and its population is projected to peak around 2059. The crossover owes as much to Russia's decline as to Mexico's rise, and the two end the century close together again as Mexico's numbers also turn down.

Mexico is projected to overtake Russia in total population around 2035. At the crossover, both countries sit at roughly 140 million people. Today Russia is still larger, but the trend lines are converging and the order is set to flip within a generation.

The reason is a tale of two trajectories. Mexico is projected to stay broadly flat over the century, moving from about 130 million in 2024 toward 131 million by 2100. Russia, by contrast, is projected to shrink, going from roughly 145 million to 126 million over the same period. Differences in fertility and age structure (Mexico's median age near 29 versus Russia's near 40 today) explain much of the divergence.

Crossovers like this one are how the global population ranking is quietly rewritten. As faster-growing populations climb the table and slower-growing or shrinking ones slip down, the list of the world's largest countries in 2100 will look markedly different from today's. The 2035 crossing is one of the clearer signals of that shift.

As with all long-range projections, the exact year carries uncertainty. Under the UN's high and low fertility scenarios the crossover could arrive earlier or later, and the figures here follow the medium variant. Still, the direction of travel, Mexico rising relative to Russia, is robust across the plausible range of outcomes.