Mexico vs Japan: population
How Mexico and Japan compare in population today and out to 2100, side by side, from UN World Population Prospects 2024.
Mexico and Japan population, 2000-2100
Lines cross around 2021
Side by side
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | 🇯🇵 Japan | |
|---|---|---|
| Population today | 132 million | 123 million |
| Population 2050 | 149 million | 105 million |
| Population 2100 | 131 million | 77.0 million |
| World rank | #11 | #12 |
| Peak year | 2059 | 2010 |
| Median age (2024) | 29 | 49 |
| Fertility rate (2024) | 1.89 | 1.22 |
| Life expectancy (2024) | 75 yrs | 85 yrs |
| Density (per km²) | 68 | 325 |
Why this comparison matters
Mexico passed Japan in 2021, and the two have kept moving apart since. Japan has been shrinking since 2010 on 1.2 births per woman. Mexico is still growing, though its fertility has also dropped below replacement, to 1.9, and the UN projects a peak around 2059. By 2100 Mexico is projected to be back near its current size, at 131 million, while Japan falls to 77.0 million.
Mexico vs Japan, explained
Today Mexico is the larger of the two, with about 132 million people against Japan's 123 million. Mexico is the world's 11th most populous country and Japan the 12th.
Their paths to 2100 differ. Mexico stays broadly flat over the century, moving from about 130 million to 131 million (+0.2%). Japan falls sharply, going from 124 million to 77.0 million (-37.9%).
The two cross over: Mexico overtook Japan back in 2021, when both sit near 127 million people. It is one of the clearer signals of how the global ranking is being rewritten.
The deeper contrast is age and fertility. Mexico has a median age near 29 and 1.89 births per woman, against Japan's 49 and 1.22. All figures follow the UN's medium-variant projection.