When will United Kingdom overtake Germany in population?

Both countries have fertility well below the replacement level, 1.6 births per woman in the UK and 1.4 in Germany, so the difference lies in migration and age structure. Germany's population peaked in 2024 and, with a median age of 45, is projected to decline steadily. The UK, younger at 40 and with higher projected net immigration through the 2040s, keeps growing until around 2073. Germany is about 15.8 million ahead today, and the crossover comes in the late 2050s.

United Kingdom is projected to overtake Germany in total population around 2059. At the crossover, both countries sit at roughly 76.0 million people. Today Germany is still larger, but the trend lines are converging and the order is set to flip within a generation.

The reason is a tale of two trajectories. United Kingdom is expected to edge higher before levelling off over the century, moving from about 68.9 million in 2024 toward 74.4 million by 2100. Germany, by contrast, is projected to shrink, going from roughly 84.7 million to 70.9 million over the same period. Differences in fertility and age structure (United Kingdom's median age near 40 versus Germany's near 45 today) explain much of the divergence.

Crossovers like this one are how the global population ranking is quietly rewritten. As faster-growing populations climb the table and slower-growing or shrinking ones slip down, the list of the world's largest countries in 2100 will look markedly different from today's. The 2059 crossing is one of the clearer signals of that shift.

As with all long-range projections, the exact year carries uncertainty. Under the UN's high and low fertility scenarios the crossover could arrive earlier or later, and the figures here follow the medium variant. Still, the direction of travel, United Kingdom rising relative to Germany, is robust across the plausible range of outcomes.