When will Kenya overtake United Kingdom in population?

The United Kingdom is still growing, but only because net immigration outweighs a fertility rate of 1.6 births per woman; the UN projects its population to peak around 2073. Kenya's growth comes from births: 3.2 per woman and a median age of 20. The UK is about 13.0 million ahead today, and the projection has Kenya passing it in the early 2040s and reaching 104 million by 2100.

Kenya is projected to overtake United Kingdom in total population around 2041. At the crossover, both countries sit at roughly 74.3 million people. Today United Kingdom is still larger, but the trend lines are converging and the order is set to flip within a generation.

The reason is a tale of two trajectories. Kenya is set to grow strongly over the century, moving from about 55.9 million in 2024 toward 104 million by 2100. United Kingdom, by contrast, is expected to edge higher before levelling off, going from roughly 68.9 million to 74.4 million over the same period. Differences in fertility and age structure (Kenya's median age near 20 versus United Kingdom's near 40 today) explain much of the divergence.

Crossovers like this one are how the global population ranking is quietly rewritten. As faster-growing populations climb the table and slower-growing or shrinking ones slip down, the list of the world's largest countries in 2100 will look markedly different from today's. The 2041 crossing is one of the clearer signals of that shift.

As with all long-range projections, the exact year carries uncertainty. Under the UN's high and low fertility scenarios the crossover could arrive earlier or later, and the figures here follow the medium variant. Still, the direction of travel, Kenya rising relative to United Kingdom, is robust across the plausible range of outcomes.