When will Kenya overtake France in population?

France's population is close to flat: fertility of 1.6 births per woman is offset by net immigration, and the UN projects only a small rise over the century. Kenya, at 3.2 births per woman and a median age of 20, is projected to add people steadily to a peak near 2098. In 1990 France had about 2.5 times Kenya's population; the two draw level in the mid 2030s.

Kenya is projected to overtake France in total population around 2035. At the crossover, both countries sit at roughly 67.8 million people. Today France is still larger, but the trend lines are converging and the order is set to flip within a generation.

The reason is a tale of two trajectories. Kenya is set to grow strongly over the century, moving from about 55.9 million in 2024 toward 104 million by 2100. France, by contrast, is expected to edge higher before levelling off, going from roughly 66.5 million to 68.5 million over the same period. Differences in fertility and age structure (Kenya's median age near 20 versus France's near 42 today) explain much of the divergence.

Crossovers like this one are how the global population ranking is quietly rewritten. As faster-growing populations climb the table and slower-growing or shrinking ones slip down, the list of the world's largest countries in 2100 will look markedly different from today's. The 2035 crossing is one of the clearer signals of that shift.

As with all long-range projections, the exact year carries uncertainty. Under the UN's high and low fertility scenarios the crossover could arrive earlier or later, and the figures here follow the medium variant. Still, the direction of travel, Kenya rising relative to France, is robust across the plausible range of outcomes.