When will Ethiopia overtake Bangladesh in population?

Bangladesh brought its fertility down to the replacement level, 2.1 births per woman in 2024, and the UN also projects net emigration of about 473 thousand people a year, so its growth is slowing toward a peak around 2071. Ethiopia, at 3.9 births per woman with a median age of 19, keeps growing throughout the century. Bangladesh is about 42.2 million ahead today; the projection has Ethiopia level by the late 2040s and at 366 million by 2100.

Ethiopia is projected to overtake Bangladesh in total population around 2047. At the crossover, both countries sit at roughly 212 million people. Today Bangladesh is still larger, but the trend lines are converging and the order is set to flip within a generation.

The reason is a tale of two trajectories. Ethiopia is on course to more than double over the century, moving from about 130 million in 2024 toward 366 million by 2100. Bangladesh, by contrast, is projected to keep growing, going from roughly 173 million to 209 million over the same period. Differences in fertility and age structure (Ethiopia's median age near 19 versus Bangladesh's near 26 today) explain much of the divergence.

Crossovers like this one are how the global population ranking is quietly rewritten. As faster-growing populations climb the table and slower-growing or shrinking ones slip down, the list of the world's largest countries in 2100 will look markedly different from today's. The 2047 crossing is one of the clearer signals of that shift.

As with all long-range projections, the exact year carries uncertainty. Under the UN's high and low fertility scenarios the crossover could arrive earlier or later, and the figures here follow the medium variant. Still, the direction of travel, Ethiopia rising relative to Bangladesh, is robust across the plausible range of outcomes.