Poland Population

Poland faces a double demographic squeeze of very low fertility and heavy emigration, as free movement within the European Union drew large numbers of young workers westward after 2004. The combination has set the population on a declining and ageing path. More recently Poland became the main destination for Ukrainians fleeing war, an inflow that has partly offset the losses.

Poland is home to about 37.9 million people in 2026, the 42nd largest population of any country. In Eastern Europe, where it lies, that future is driven by fertility, longevity and the movement of people across its borders. Population density stands at about 124 people for every square kilometre of land.

The peak is already behind Poland: its population maxed out at about 38.8 million near 2023 and is contracting. By 2050 the UN expects around 32.9 million people, and by 2100 about 19.4 million.

Fertility sits at about 1.30 births per woman, below the replacement level of roughly 2.1, so without migration the population would eventually shrink.

Half of Poland is currently younger than about 42, but by 2100 the median age is projected to reach around 55, even as life expectancy improves from about 79 years. That ageing slowly changes everything from the size of the workforce to the cost of care and pensions.

All of this is a projection, not a prediction. The further out it runs the wider the plausible range becomes, which is why Poland's charts show a low-to-high band around the central line.