India Population

India became the world's most populous country in 2023, overtaking China, yet its story is now one of deceleration rather than explosion. The national fertility rate has already slipped to around the replacement level, with the southern states well below it and the northern states still above. For the next few decades the defining feature is a vast working-age population, the so-called demographic dividend, which India is racing to turn into jobs and growth before its own ageing begins.

With roughly 1.47 billion people as of 2026, India ranks 1st in the world by population. In Southern Asia, where it lies, that future is driven by fertility, longevity and the movement of people across its borders. It packs in roughly 497 people per square kilometre.

The defining marker in India's future is its peak, expected around 2062 at about 1.70 billion. After that the population eases back toward 1.51 billion by 2100, having passed through 1.68 billion at mid-century. It passed the 1 billion mark around 1998.

Fertility sits at about 1.96 births per woman, below the replacement level of roughly 2.1, so without migration the population would eventually shrink.

The median age is set to climb from about 28 today to roughly 48 by 2100, even as life expectancy improves from about 72 years. That ageing slowly changes everything from the size of the workforce to the cost of care and pensions.

The trajectory above is the UN's medium scenario. Wars, policy shifts, economic change and migration can all move the numbers, but the broad shape, growth followed by an eventual peak, is robust across the main variants.