Vietnam vs Japan: population
How Vietnam and Japan compare in population today and out to 2100, side by side, from UN World Population Prospects 2024.
Vietnam and Japan population, 2000-2100
Lines cross around 2045
Side by side
| 🇻🇳 Vietnam | 🇯🇵 Japan | |
|---|---|---|
| Population today | 102 million | 123 million |
| Population 2050 | 110 million | 105 million |
| Population 2100 | 92.0 million | 77.0 million |
| World rank | #16 | #12 |
| Peak year | 2050 | 2010 |
| Median age (2024) | 33 | 49 |
| Fertility rate (2024) | 1.90 | 1.22 |
| Life expectancy (2024) | 75 yrs | 85 yrs |
| Density (per km²) | 326 | 325 |
Why this comparison matters
Vietnam and Japan are both below the replacement level, at 1.9 and 1.2 births per woman, and both are projected to be smaller in 2100 than they are today. The difference is timing: Japan peaked in 2010 and is already well into its decline, while Vietnam is still growing toward a peak around 2050. That is enough for Vietnam to pass Japan around 2045, and it stays ahead through the end of the century.
Vietnam vs Japan, explained
Today Japan is the larger of the two, with about 123 million people against Vietnam's 102 million. Vietnam is the world's 16th most populous country and Japan the 12th.
Their paths to 2100 differ. Vietnam declines over the century, moving from about 101 million to 92.0 million (-8.7%). Japan falls sharply, going from 124 million to 77.0 million (-37.9%).
The two cross over: Vietnam is projected to overtake Japan around 2045, when both sit near 109 million people. It is one of the clearer signals of how the global ranking is being rewritten.
The deeper contrast is age and fertility. Vietnam has a median age near 33 and 1.90 births per woman, against Japan's 49 and 1.22. All figures follow the UN's medium-variant projection.