Ethiopia vs Japan: population
How Ethiopia and Japan compare in population today and out to 2100, side by side, from UN World Population Prospects 2024.
Ethiopia and Japan population, 2000-2100
Lines cross around 2023
Side by side
| 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 🇯🇵 Japan | |
|---|---|---|
| Population today | 137 million | 123 million |
| Population 2050 | 223 million | 105 million |
| Population 2100 | 366 million | 77.0 million |
| World rank | #10 | #12 |
| Peak year | after 2100 | 2010 |
| Median age (2024) | 19 | 49 |
| Fertility rate (2024) | 3.91 | 1.22 |
| Life expectancy (2024) | 68 yrs | 85 yrs |
| Density (per km²) | 139 | 325 |
Why this comparison matters
Ethiopia passed Japan in 2023, and the two are now separating fast. Japan, with 1.2 births per woman and a median age of 49, is projected to fall to 77.0 million by 2100. Ethiopia has a median age of 19 and 3.9 births per woman, and the UN projects it to reach 366 million, about 4.8 times Japan's size by then.
Ethiopia vs Japan, explained
Today Ethiopia is the larger of the two, with about 137 million people against Japan's 123 million. Ethiopia is the world's 10th most populous country and Japan the 12th.
Their paths to 2100 differ. Ethiopia grows strongly over the century, moving from about 130 million to 366 million (+181.1%). Japan falls sharply, going from 124 million to 77.0 million (-37.9%).
The two cross over: Ethiopia overtook Japan back in 2023, when both sit near 126 million people. It is one of the clearer signals of how the global ranking is being rewritten.
The deeper contrast is age and fertility. Ethiopia has a median age near 19 and 3.91 births per woman, against Japan's 49 and 1.22. All figures follow the UN's medium-variant projection.