China vs Japan: population
How China and Japan compare in population today and out to 2100, side by side, from UN World Population Prospects 2024.
China and Japan population, 2000-2100
Population 2000-2100
Side by side
| 🇨🇳 China | 🇯🇵 Japan | |
|---|---|---|
| Population today | 1.41 billion | 123 million |
| Population 2050 | 1.27 billion | 105 million |
| Population 2100 | 639 million | 77.0 million |
| World rank | #2 | #12 |
| Peak year | 2021 | 2010 |
| Median age (2024) | 40 | 49 |
| Fertility rate (2024) | 1.01 | 1.22 |
| Life expectancy (2024) | 78 yrs | 85 yrs |
| Density (per km²) | 147 | 325 |
Why this comparison matters
East Asia is ageing faster than anywhere on earth, and these two show what that looks like at scale. Both China and Japan are past their population peaks and shrinking, with very low fertility and rapidly greying populations. Japan started earlier, but China's decline, now under way, is unfolding faster and on a vastly larger scale.
China vs Japan, explained
Today China is the larger of the two, with about 1.41 billion people against Japan's 123 million. China is the world's 2nd most populous country and Japan the 12th.
Their paths to 2100 differ. China falls sharply over the century, moving from about 1.42 billion to 639 million (-55.1%). Japan falls sharply, going from 124 million to 77.0 million (-37.9%).
The order does not flip this century: China is still the larger of the two in 2100. The two trajectories run in parallel rather than crossing.
The deeper contrast is age and fertility. China has a median age near 40 and 1.01 births per woman, against Japan's 49 and 1.22. All figures follow the UN's medium-variant projection.