Portugal Population

Portugal has low fertility, compounded by the emigration of young people during economic downturns, leaving an ageing and rural-depopulating country. In recent years it has worked to attract immigrants and returning expatriates to counter the trend. Without that inflow its decline would be considerably steeper.

With roughly 10.4 million people as of 2026, Portugal ranks 94th in the world by population. A country of Southern Europe, its trajectory to 2100 is governed by how births, deaths and migration play out. Population density stands at about 113 people for every square kilometre of land.

Portugal's population has already passed its peak of about 10.6 million, reached around 2010. It now sits roughly 2% below that high point, and the UN projects about 9.8 million by 2050 and 8.8 million by 2100.

Half of Portugal is currently younger than about 47, but by 2100 the median age is projected to reach around 47, even as life expectancy improves from about 83 years. A rising median age means fewer working-age people supporting each retiree over time.

Fertility sits at about 1.51 births per woman, below the replacement level of roughly 2.1, so without migration the population would eventually shrink. Net inward migration adds to the population each year and partly offsets the low birth rate.

These figures follow the UN's medium variant, the most widely cited scenario. The low and high variants, driven mainly by differing fertility assumptions, fan out into a wide range by 2100, so treat each number as a central estimate rather than a precise forecast.