Azerbaijan Population

Azerbaijan's fertility has slipped below the replacement level, a quiet turn for a country that still thinks of itself as young. Oil and gas wealth accelerated urbanisation around Baku, and the demographic momentum of earlier decades keeps the population inching upward for now. The projection has it peaking around mid-century before beginning a slow decline.

Azerbaijan is home to about 10.4 million people in 2026, the 93rd largest population of any country. A country of Western Asia, its trajectory to 2100 is governed by how births, deaths and migration play out. It packs in roughly 126 people per square kilometre.

Growth continues for Azerbaijan until around 2051, the year its population is set to crest at about 11.2 million. From there a slow fall takes it to roughly 10.0 million by century's end.

The median age is set to climb from about 33 today to roughly 46 by 2100, while life expectancy, near 75 years, keeps rising. That ageing slowly changes everything from the size of the workforce to the cost of care and pensions.

Fertility sits at about 1.67 births per woman, below the replacement level of roughly 2.1, so without migration the population would eventually shrink.

The trajectory above is the UN's medium scenario. Wars, policy shifts, economic change and migration can all move the numbers, but the broad shape, growth followed by an eventual peak, is robust across the main variants.