Papua New Guinea Population

Papua New Guinea is one of the hardest countries on earth to count. Most of its people live in scattered rural communities across rugged terrain, it has not produced a census widely seen as reliable since 2011, and some recent estimates put the true population millions above the official figure. What is clear is that the country is young, fertility is well above replacement, and it remains the most linguistically diverse nation in the world, with over 800 languages.

With roughly 10.9 million people as of 2026, Papua New Guinea ranks 90th in the world by population. A country of Melanesia, its trajectory to 2100 is governed by how births, deaths and migration play out. Population density stands at about 24 people for every square kilometre of land.

Growth continues for Papua New Guinea until around 2100, the year its population is set to crest at about 18.6 million. From there a slow fall takes it to roughly 18.6 million by century's end.

At roughly 3.07 births per woman, fertility remains above replacement, though it has been trending down.

Half of Papua New Guinea is currently younger than about 23, but by 2100 the median age is projected to reach around 37, even as life expectancy improves from about 66 years. That ageing slowly changes everything from the size of the workforce to the cost of care and pensions.

The trajectory above is the UN's medium scenario. Wars, policy shifts, economic change and migration can all move the numbers, but the broad shape, growth followed by an eventual peak, is robust across the main variants.