New Zealand Population

New Zealand's growth is driven largely by immigration, with below-replacement domestic fertility, and the population is steadily ageing. Its Maori and Pacific communities are younger and have higher birth rates than the population as a whole, shaping the country's future age structure. Migration flows, especially to and from Australia, add a further swing to its numbers.

With roughly 5.3 million people as of 2026, New Zealand ranks 126th in the world by population. Set in Australia/New Zealand, its demographic path this century turns on the balance of births, deaths and migration. It packs in roughly 20 people per square kilometre.

Growth continues for New Zealand until around 2078, the year its population is set to crest at about 5.9 million. From there a slow fall takes it to roughly 5.8 million by century's end.

The median age is set to climb from about 38 today to roughly 47 by 2100, while life expectancy, near 82 years, keeps rising. A rising median age means fewer working-age people supporting each retiree over time.

Fertility sits at about 1.66 births per woman, below the replacement level of roughly 2.1, so without migration the population would eventually shrink. Immigration is a meaningful contributor, bringing in more people than leave in a typical year.

The trajectory above is the UN's medium scenario. Wars, policy shifts, economic change and migration can all move the numbers, but the broad shape, growth followed by an eventual peak, is robust across the main variants.